Trump’s 2024 Victory and Its Global Shockwaves: How India and Nepal Will Feel the Impact

By Raman Sharma
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 signals a seismic shift in global politics and economics. His “America First” doctrine, a cornerstone of his previous administration, is poised for a revival—bringing protectionist trade policies, unpredictable geopolitical maneuvers, and a retreat from globalization. The repercussions will not be limited to Washington or Wall Street; they will reverberate across the world, from Europe to Asia, and particularly in South Asia, where India and Nepal will face economic and diplomatic aftershocks.

The Global Economy: Protectionism on the Rise

The first signs of Trump’s economic nationalism surfaced in January 2025, when he imposed sweeping tariffs: 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, 10% on Chinese goods, and a warning shot at the European Union. Markets reacted swiftly—the Dow Jones dipped, signaling investor unease over looming trade wars. Trump’s justification? Protecting American jobs. The reality? Higher costs for American consumers and escalating global economic instability.

China, Canada, and Mexico have all vowed retaliation. This tit-for-tat approach threatens to disrupt supply chains, inflate manufacturing costs, and deepen economic uncertainty. The world’s largest economies are bracing for impact—but so are emerging markets like India and Nepal, which rely heavily on stable trade relations with the U.S.

The Russia-Ukraine War: A Policy of Uncertainty

Trump’s stance on Russia and Ukraine remains murky at best. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already raised alarms, calling his exclusion from U.S.-Russia discussions “very dangerous.” Trump’s unpredictability—oscillating between tough sanctions and diplomatic overtures—leaves Ukraine vulnerable at a time when Russian advances are at their most aggressive since 2022.

For Europe, this means renewed anxiety about NATO’s future. For India and Nepal, it raises questions about the stability of global alliances and economic ripple effects. Oil prices, defense partnerships, and multilateral cooperation could all be subject to Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy.

The South Asian Fallout: Challenges for India and Nepal

India, a top trading partner of the U.S. since 2021, faces a complicated path ahead. A Trump-led shift toward bilateral agreements could upend trade dynamics, forcing India to reconfigure its economic strategy. The “China Plus One” policy—an effort to reduce reliance on Beijing—might see renewed urgency as New Delhi seeks to insulate itself from the turbulence of U.S. protectionism.

For Nepal, the stakes are equally high. While its trade volume with the U.S. is smaller than India’s, key exports—textiles, carpets, tourism—depend on American demand. A tightening of U.S. trade policies could deal a blow to Nepal’s fragile economy. Additionally, remittances from Nepali workers in the U.S., a crucial lifeline for many households, could be affected by shifts in immigration and labor policies.

There’s also the India-Nepal equation. The U.S. has historically bolstered India’s defense capabilities, and any recalibration of American military aid could alter regional security dynamics. If Trump scales back defense commitments, Nepal may have to navigate a more precarious geopolitical landscape.

The Bigger Picture: A New Economic Order?

Beyond trade and security, Trump’s policies could influence global financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. As a dominant voice in these organizations, the U.S. has significant leverage over aid and loan policies. A shift toward stricter loan conditions or reduced financial assistance could pose new challenges for developing economies like Nepal.

Additionally, Trump’s history of cutting foreign aid raises questions about the future of U.S.-backed development projects. Through USAID, America has been a key contributor to Nepal’s infrastructure and social programs. Any reduction in funding could stall critical initiatives in health, education, and economic development.

The Road Ahead

Trump’s resurgence marks an inflection point in global affairs. While his economic nationalism creates headwinds, it also compels nations to rethink and recalibrate their strategies. India must strengthen regional trade partnerships, while Nepal must diversify its economic dependencies to mitigate potential shocks.

Much will depend on how South Asian nations respond to this new world order. If Trump’s policies push the U.S. toward greater isolationism, countries like India and Nepal will need to chart their own course—one that prioritizes resilience in an era of uncertainty.